Mediobanca, analisti Morningstar: positivi sul titolo, è ancora sottovalutato

Stephen Ellis, Director, Financial Services Equity Research di Morningstar, nell’ultima nota azionaria su Mediobanca mette in luce come, nel recente difficile contesto per il segmento finanziario italiano, Mediobanca continui a proseguire verso la giusta direzione e a presentare risultati buoni e solidi. Gli analisti Morningstar mantengono un fair value pari a 10 euro per azione e prevedono un ulteriore rialzo del titolo, a fronte delle riforme del sistema bancario italiano, seppur lente. Il titolo secondo Morningstar rimane sottovalutato dal mercato.

Ecco il commento integrale in inglese di Stephen Ellis

“In one of the most difficult Italian banking environments in recent memory, Mediobanca continues to deliver strong results. We plan to maintain our EUR 10 fair value estimate and no-moat rating, and we still see further upside as the Italian banking system continues to slowly reform. Net profit for the bank was up 11% to EUR 271 million, the best result since 2008, and we’ve yet to see benefits from the two recent acquisitions of Barclays’ Italian retail operations and Cairn Capital flow through. The Barclays deal appears to be attractive, as Barclays paid Mediobanca EUR 240 million to assume 85 branches with EUR 5.7 billion in direct and indirect funding, and a EUR 2.5 billion mortgage loan book with EUR 32 million in unlikely-to-pay loans.

Currently, the operation appears to be at break-even levels, and Mediobanca has yet to estimate the restructuring costs (this should be complete next quarter), but the deal appears well structured to limit downside. Similarly, Cairn has added EUR 8.1 billion in assets under management, boosting overall AUM/assets under administration for Mediobanca to around EUR 36 billion; at this point, this is also about break-even level. Aside from the recent deals, results appear quite healthy. Net interest income improved 4% to EUR 303 million, helped by a significant improvement within consumer, offset by weaker wholesale results due to lower securities trading. Consumer net interest income improved 14% to EUR 214 million as both loans (a 9% increase) and margins expanded. Similarly consumer fee income improved 27% to EUR 38 million, leading to a 65% improvement in net profit for the segment to EUR 65 million. We believe the recent strength can continue, particularly as the addition of the Barclays assets progresses. Finally, with a 12.5% common equity Tier 1 ratio, the bank remains well capitalized, and has the strongest balance sheet among the Italian banks we cover, in our view, given its low levels of nonperforming loans. “